The WNBA Game Model Is Live

Our WNBA simulation model is now on the site. Every game on the slate gets simulated 100,000 times at the player level, producing win probabilities, fair moneylines, projected scores, and totals for the full slate.

The methodology is proprietary, but the core idea is simulation. For each game, the model builds both rosters player by player, simulates the game possession by possession, and rolls those 100,000 outcomes up into a full distribution of final scores. From that distribution we derive everything on the board: win probability, fair moneyline, fair spread, fair total, and first-half prices.

Trust the moneylines. That's it, for now.

We want to be direct about where this model is strong and where it is still cooking. The winner picks are the mature part. Season to date the model is 43–27 picking sides, a 61.4% hit rate across every graded game. That is the number we stand behind, and the moneyline column is where the model has earned trust.

Totals are a different story. Over the same stretch the over/under picks are 30–27, roughly a coin flip and not enough to beat the vig. Projecting who wins and projecting exactly how many combined points get scored are two different problems, and the second one is still in active development. The fair totals on the board are real model output and we grade them publicly every day, but we are not telling you to bet them yet.

Player props are in the same bucket. The simulations already produce per-player projections under the hood, and a props board is coming, but it is not released because it has not met our bar. When it does, you will read about it here first.

What's on the board

• Win probability and fair moneyline: the share of the 100,000 simulations each team wins, converted to a fair price. This is the column to use.
• Predicted score, fair spread, fair total: the center of the simulated score distribution. Useful for framing a game; still in development as a betting signal.
• First-half prices: win probabilities and fair moneylines for the first half only, straight from the same simulations.
• Daily grading: every pick is graded against final scores the next morning, wins and losses both. The season-to-date record on the page is the full history, not a highlight reel.