The MLB Strikeout Model Is Live
Our MLB strikeout props model is now on the site. For every probable starter it projects a full strikeout distribution, meaning the probability of every strikeout total from 0 to 12+, not just a single number.
The methodology is proprietary, but the core idea is simulation. For each start, the model simulates the individual plate appearances between the pitcher and the hitters projected to face him, and those simulated matchups roll up into the full strikeout distribution. Rows re-price the moment lineups confirm.
One thing to be clear about: this is not a picks feed. Use it to frame the slate. It tells you which starters carry a real strikeout ceiling, where the posted line sits inside our distribution, and which matchups deserve a closer look. We grade the model against the posted over/unders purely for record keeping. Its real strength is alternative lines, where the ladder shows a fair price at every rung instead of only the main number.
The definitions we use
- Median and mean Ks: the headline projection is the median of the strikeout distribution, with the mean shown beside it.
- K distribution: the probability of each strikeout total from 0 through 12+. It produces a ladder of fair odds at every half-K line, not just the posted one.
- Best edge: the model's pre-market probability of the over minus the market's de-vigged probability. Whichever side of the line comes out positive is the best edge.
- CSW% and Whiff%: called strikes plus whiffs per pitch, and swinging misses per swing. These are the pitch-level inputs behind each matchup read.
- Lineup status: Confirmed means the actual lineup is in. Pending means projected hitters, and those rows re-price once the lineup confirms.